{"id":1760,"date":"2018-07-10T05:43:55","date_gmt":"2018-07-10T05:43:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/samkessler.com\/-\/?p=1760"},"modified":"2020-08-02T20:05:51","modified_gmt":"2020-08-03T00:05:51","slug":"repairing-us-russian-relations-is-necessary-to-the-future-of-u-s-grand-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/samkessler.com\/-\/2018\/07\/10\/repairing-us-russian-relations-is-necessary-to-the-future-of-u-s-grand-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Repairing US-Russian Relations is Necessary to the Future of U.S. Grand Strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

By Sam Kessler<\/strong><\/p>\n

President Trump recently made a controversial statement that indicated it was time to reinstate Russia back into the G7<\/a> (G8 with Russia), otherwise known as the group of seven major advanced and industrialized economies in the world. This idea was brought up at the tail end of the recent G7 summit in Quebec, Canada where they attempted to rectify the current dilemma regarding new tariffs and increased trade protectionism with multiple nations as a byproduct of the current trade war with China<\/a>. Trump\u2019s mentioning of the possibility of Russia\u2019s return as an international stakeholder in the management of the Western global political-economic system had quickly shaken<\/a>\u00a0up the foreign policy and national security communities. In fact, it quickly distinguished the polarization of sentiments regarding the U.S. position on Russia.<\/p>\n

After all, we currently live in an age of \u201cRussiaphobia\u201d where anti-Russian sentiments<\/a>\u00a0come from the political left rather than the political right, which was more prevalent during the Cold War. But we don\u2019t live in the Cold War era anymore. In fact, we are now entering the post-globalization period<\/a>\u00a0with a world that is now re-discovering a new era of multipolarism, where competition between countries over resources, technology, weaponry, information, and great power leveraging is upon us at heightened levels. This is something<\/a>\u00a0we have not seen since the end of the First World War and the 1937-1939 period that was prior to the Second World War. However, new powers are rising in this new international system while old and current powers have to decide how they will adapt, evolve, stay afloat, or even find new opportunities for growth and development.<\/p>\n

These are big issues that require an updated mindset and way of thinking. Fortunately, history is our best ally since it has witnessed these types of geopolitical changes occurring each time this happens. It will continue to happen whenever highs and lows in trends and patterns can no longer remain manageable to maintain the status quo. Great power politics between major powers has returned<\/a>\u00a0with a vengeance. Well, it never really left but the U.S. and the rest of the world have spent the last 15 plus years concentrating a great deal of emphasis on living in a post-911 world that dealt with a war on terrorism and wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and other global battlefields.<\/p>\n

The post-911 time period produced some extremely important events that have greatly impacted U.S. foreign policy and global positioning strategy in the long term. They deserve a lot of focus, however, it\u2019s even more important to understand how they have helped pave the way for a new international system that is quickly making the old world order less efficient. \u00a0In fact, if you Google \u201crealism in international relations\u201d, you may come to the conclusion that realism is back<\/a>\u00a0at the forefront of international policy and grand strategy thinking by nations and its leaders. This is a result of an emerging post-globalization era that was marked inevitable at the global trend\u2019s inception.<\/p>\n

In the age of \u201cRussiaphobia\u201d, we constantly look at events and sentiments that transpired from the 2016 elections as well as the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Georgia incursion in 2008, and the Chechen civil wars of the 1990s. But to be perfectly honest, it is limited thinking and lack of big-picture perspective. It is already apparent that Putin\u2019s Russia seeks to remain \u201can essential power\u201d<\/a>\u00a0in the world after its severe decline occurred in 1991 when the Soviet Union disintegrated. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has not integrated well into the global political economy in this recent period of globalization. Prior to the placing of sanctions on them as a result of their 2014 annexation of Crimea, which really was an act to preserve their influence in the region, Russia had more economic interests with the West than they do now. In fact, their economic and political interests have pivoted mainly to Asian nations<\/a>, particularly China.<\/p>\n

\u201cRussia is \u2018likely to discover that it can no longer manage an equal partnership <\/em><\/strong>with China\u2019; Russia will<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u2018likely face a choice between the increasingly close embrace of a more dynamic China and attempting to find regional and global partners to help balance Chinese influence.\u2019\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n

–\u00a0Ariel Cohen (Heritage Foundation, 2001)<\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\"<\/a>The Chinese-Russian relationship has grown extensively in recent years but it has been a process long in the making since the end of the Cold War. This is crucial to understand since relations hadn\u2019t been this strong since the inception of the Cold War. However, this changed when President Nixon with the help of Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger mounted a major coup in the U.S.-China-Russia triangle balance of power<\/a>\u00a0by getting China to align with the U.S. during the Cold War. This ultimately allowed China to open its economy and wean itself off of Maoism. Forty-five years later, China is the second leader in the world behind the U.S. and their relationship with Russia has grown exceptionally stronger over the last quarter century.<\/p>\n

It can be argued that the sanctions that were imposed by the Obama administration had actually helped reinforce the Chinese-Russian relationship. This had been gradually improving with periodic upgrades to their partnership and good neighbor agreements, as well as various economic, trade, infrastructure, and military arms deals that were slow in the works. However, the 2014 sanctions that were placed on them ended up streamlining their relations and agreements. After all, Russia\u2019s economy was severely threatened by the sanctions as well as higher inflation and lower oil prices<\/a>. Russia\u2019s greatest weakness in this scenario had been its over-reliance on integrating within the Western global economic system while having an economy that was ill-equipped and not diversified enough to weather out the sanctions on their own. Like any nation throughout history that experienced \u201csurvival mode\u201d, the key strategy would be to wean itself off the system by entering into another one that is more favorable, advantageous, and correlates with their attitudes and ideologies.<\/p>\n

A closer relationship with China and the Asian economy as a whole would render the sanctions placed on Russia as being less effective<\/a>\u00a0than originally intended. Also, to some degree, it would actually hurt the economies of certain European Union member states (like Germany and Italy) since they are highly dependent on Russian energy. In addition, Russia remains influential in its influence over Eastern Europe and Eurasia despite the sanctions being placed on them. However, a stronger Sino-Russian relationship signifies the current acceptance by Russia\u2019s political elite that China is the more senior and more powerful player of the two countries. This is an obvious point, but this is certainly one point that U.S. policymakers should keep in mind when dealing with China-Russian relations.<\/p>\n

More importantly, Russia\u2019s willingness to work with China in developing its economic Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a critical area that is worth monitoring for years to come. After all, the BRI seeks to recreate the ancient Silk Road via land and water trade<\/a>\u00a0routes by undergoing massive infrastructure projects that span over 60 countries and costs\u00a0at least four trillion dollars in investment<\/a>\u00a0by the Chinese government. This has been in the works since 2013 and it consists of infrastructure projects that deal with improved travel (roads, highways, and trains), trading centers, and ports. It also consists<\/a>\u00a0of industry investment and diversification projects in various regions to help develop and prepare their economies in the long run. \u00a0The point of this massive investment project is to either ignite a form of globalization inside of Asia with China as the driving force or at least spark a new period of globalization in the international system where China and the rest of the Asian and Eurasian economies are benefitting immensely.<\/p>\n